What is Invest 98L?
Invest 98L is the name given to a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa in late September 2022. It is short for Investigation Area 98-L, which indicates that it is the 98th disturbance in the Atlantic basin that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this year. The letter L means that it is located in the Atlantic Ocean, while storms in the Pacific Ocean are designated with the letter E.
Invest 98L is not yet a tropical storm or a hurricane, but it has the potential to develop into one as it moves westward across the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. The NHC assigns a percentage chance of development to each disturbance based on various factors, such as sea surface temperatures, wind shear, humidity and air pressure. As of Monday, October 4, 2022, Invest 98L has a 70% chance of development over the next two days and a 90% chance over the next five days.
How are spaghetti models used to track Invest 98L?
Spaghetti models are a way of displaying the different forecast models that are run by various meteorological centers around the world to predict the path of a tropical cyclone. They are called spaghetti models because they look like strands of spaghetti when plotted on a map. Each strand represents a possible track that the storm may take, based on different assumptions and calculations.
Spaghetti models are useful for showing the uncertainty and variability in the forecast, as well as identifying scenarios that are plausible but not necessarily the most likely. They can help meteorologists and emergency managers plan ahead and prepare for different outcomes. However, they are not meant to be taken as definitive or accurate predictions, as they can change significantly over time and depend on many factors that are hard to measure or model.
The NHC uses an official forecast track that is based on a consensus of the most reliable models, as well as expert analysis and judgment. The official track is shown as a solid line with a cone of uncertainty around it, which indicates the possible range of error. The NHC also issues advisories and warnings for areas that are expected to be affected by the storm, based on its intensity, size and speed.
What is the current status and forecast of Invest 98L?
As of Monday, October 4, 2022, Invest 98L is located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving westward at about 15 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. It is expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea over the next several days, gradually strengthening as it encounters favorable conditions for development.
Many spaghetti models show that Invest 98L will eventually turn northward and enter the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, possibly reaching hurricane strength by then. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about its exact track and intensity, as well as how it will interact with other weather systems in the region. Some models suggest that it could make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, while others indicate that it could curve eastward and head toward Florida or even the Atlantic Coast .
Florida residents should pay close attention to the updates and forecasts from the NHC and local authorities, as Invest 98L could pose a significant threat to the state depending on its evolution. The main impacts from Invest 98L could include poor marine conditions, beach erosion and coastal flooding, periods of heavy rain and gusty winds, and storm surge if it makes landfall.
Invest 98L is a tropical wave that has a high chance of developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane in the next few days. Spaghetti models are used to show the possible paths that it may take, but they are not definitive or accurate predictions. The NHC issues official forecasts and advisories based on a consensus of the most reliable models and expert analysis. Florida residents should monitor the situation closely and prepare for any potential impacts from Invest 98L.