Invest 98L is a tropical wave that has been monitored by meteorologists since September 20, 2022. The wave is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea and is expected to move westward across the region and into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. The wave has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next few days, and could potentially threaten the Gulf Coast as a hurricane. Here are some key points about Invest 98L and its possible impact on the Gulf Coast.
What are spaghetti models and how do they help forecasters?
Spaghetti models are computer simulations that show the possible paths of a tropical cyclone based on different assumptions and data sources. They are called spaghetti models because they look like strands of spaghetti when plotted on a map. Spaghetti models help forecasters to assess the uncertainty and variability of a tropical cyclone’s track and intensity. They also help to identify the factors that could influence the storm’s behavior, such as wind shear, sea surface temperature, moisture, and steering currents.
What is the current status and forecast of Invest 98L?
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as of September 23, 2022, Invest 98L has a 70% chance of development over the next two days and a 90% chance over the next five days. The wave is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The wave is expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, passing near or over the Windward Islands, Venezuela, Colombia, and Central America. By early next week, the wave could turn northwestward and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC said that environmental conditions are favorable for development of Invest 98L, as it will encounter warm water, low wind shear, and high moisture. However, there are some factors that could limit its intensification, such as land interaction, dry air intrusion, and upper-level troughs. The NHC said that if Invest 98L becomes a tropical depression or storm, it will be named Hermine.
What are the possible impacts of Invest 98L on the Gulf Coast?
The potential impacts of Invest 98L on the Gulf Coast are still uncertain, as there is a lot of variability and disagreement among the spaghetti models. Some models show the system moving toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico and affecting Florida or the Southeast coast. Other models show the system moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico and affecting Texas or Mexico. And some models show the system staying in the central Gulf of Mexico and affecting Louisiana or Mississippi.
Regardless of where Invest 98L makes landfall, it could bring heavy rain, gusty winds, storm surge, flooding, and rip currents to parts of the Gulf Coast. The NHC said that interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Invest 98L and be prepared for possible tropical storm or hurricane conditions by early next week.
Invest 98L is a tropical wave that has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next few days. The wave is moving westward across the Caribbean Sea and could enter the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. The wave could pose a threat to parts of the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, depending on its track and intensity. Spaghetti models help forecasters to estimate the possible scenarios of Invest 98L’s behavior, but they also show a lot of uncertainty and variability. Therefore, people along the Gulf Coast should stay alert and be ready for any changes in Invest 98L’s forecast.